We posted "some things are now settled".
Gosh, they don't keep Kate & Gerry in the loop anymore, do they? If I knew it why didn't they and their little helpers? The Interrupted Investigation isn't interrupted anymore, folks. Job done.
See you on the Bureau.
Whatever happens in the end Kate & Gerry McCann have unarguably been at the centre of something truly dreadful, perhaps, for we don’t yet know, worse than dreadful.
The face of Kate McCann, either without make-up, as she chose to appear before Leveson, or slathered with it, as on Crimewatch, speaks eloquently of that truth. Their suffering, which has a lot further to go, was not something they consciously chose. They are like a couple struggling in a grey, turbulent sea.
And the same goes for the families of the pair for whom there has been no relief or resolution after six years: their clan loyalty and instinctive distrust of the police which the Bureau has highlighted at times has, given the context, a certain admirable, if troubling, quality about it.
The word evil is used cautiously these days. But I remember watching the dogs’ video for the first time. The almost deserted and brutally lit concrete car park and the line of empty vehicles, at once suggestive of a dozen post-mortem gangland news photos, was lowering enough. But then the strange and almost wordless ritual of a forensically-overalled handler, his two dogs and their echoing barks as they worked their way through the cars suddenly brought home the reality in a way that the hysterical media stories never had. I was watching a search for the concealed traces of a child’s corpse. A sense of evil is the only way I can describe what I fleetingly experienced, not with regard to the McCanns, but to the transport by somebody of a near-infant out of a night-time apartment and her almost certain death. There were no winners, no happy endings, no soap opera plots here. Just evil.
That anyone not already trapped in this nightmare by blood and kinship would actually choose to invite themselves into it seems hard to conceive. Even those whose work forces them into proximity with violent death – emergency service people and hardened police investigators – find themselves shaken and troubled when the victim is a young child and are not ashamed to admit it.
But among all the various parties who have been drawn into the case one figure stands out clear of all others, clear even of opportunistic criminals like Halligen who was only too happy to get away from the case once he’d made his money. One who has not just involved himself but for six years has actually thrived mightily on it like a repulsive fattened bluebottle supping on dead and rotten meat. That person is Clarence Mitchell.
About whom I’ll have more to say.
Some things are now settled
The case is now moving, in jerky steps, towards its climax and it’s time to start looking beyond the next couple of months.
When it emerged in February that the McCanns wanted out of the libel case it was clear that something crucial had occurred and things would never be the same again. Amaral’s book was a lethal challenge: either you fight and refute me or you are tacitly accepting what I claim and the public will slowly but surely accept it.
They had to sue. And to try and settle four years later, whatever the reasons, was tantamount to surrender, to accepting the irrefutability of Amaral’s case. The astonishingly weak Lisbon evidence so far, together with the appeal court judgement, has confirmed that irrefutability. Scotland Yard's official statements indicate that the central claim – that "the search" was damaged by the actions of others including Mr Amaral – now appears in a very different light: the private "search", it transpires, was based almost completely on erroneous eye-witness evidence and killing it off earlier would have been a public service. The likelihood is that Amaral will now win, either soon or at appeal.
In June we discovered just how far the quite separate track of the Yard investigation had progressed when it emerged that the UK Crown Prosecution Service had been in discussions about the case in Portugal. As the Bureau then wrote, you don’t send senior CPS people to discuss “persons of interest” or possible “suspects”: those are matters for the investigators. UK prosecutors deal with prosecutions. Clearly there was a prosecutable case against someone that was being appraised.
The Bureau said the evidence suggested who those subjects must be. The Yard denied it. We withdrew the claim and closed the Bureau in the light of the denial.
Times change
The days of “keeping the case in the public eye” or “campaigning for the conclusion of the interrupted investigation” are, as far as I'm concerned, over, both because of those 100 000 hits a day on Nigel Moore's database and because of the progress of the investigation.
There is no need to try and convince the public about the McCann case anymore since, after six years, they are now finding out for themselves. And there is no need to keep pointing out the significant evidence since the police themselves are now starting to do so. It is a matter of unimportance whether people agree with this blog and the writer’s views or not: debate has been overtaken by facts.
Looking back, perhaps I and others should have seen the longer-term implications of pointing the finger at the only known subjects of investigation and the CPS so quickly: it did the investigation no good. On reflection it is clear that had the Yard not explicitly denied the Bureau claims then a mad witch-hunt like that of September 2007 might have followed, helping nobody and raising the question of whether a fair trial could ever take place. That’s why we’re happy to accept the statements of Scotland Yard, defer to their expertise and say a little less about certain things than we used to. My apologies to Mr Redwood and his team for the more colourful criticisms.
In the light of events the Bureau is expected to re-open in the relatively near future.
[Continued]
Meanwhile a libel trial rolls on in Lisbon. BBC/Scotland Yard's Crimewatch and the official statement by Mr Redwood that the "abductor" seen by Jane Tanner is no longer a person of interest, by virtue of being non-existent, haven't protected the parents or harmfully overshadowed the trial at all. On the contrary they have helped enormously to bolster Mr Amaral's case.
First, the evidence of Mr Flores in court (it'll be in the transcript) that the McCann version was perceived by the police as a childish "fairy tale" has been given further, and probably decisive, strength now that its key character, the Fairy Tale Abductor Giant, has been slain.
Secondly, the "search". In the literal sense of a physical search for Madeleine – prodding the ground, searching deserted buildings, looking for CCTV evidence, searching, it was, of course, all over within days, or at most weeks, of the disappearance and has never been resumed.
Insofar as the word is being used to describe something quite different and non-literal, an attempt, for instance, to track down, or find traces of, an abductor, complete with more and more detailed descriptions of him, the entire effort is now revealed as a complete black-comedy nonsense, a gaffe on such a scale that the world has still not taken it in.
Quite simply, the pictures which Mr Mitchell and his collaborators have been showing at media conferences for several years either have no known connection with the child or, more importantly, are purely imaginary, elaborations of a person we know never existed, the Fairy Giant.
Friendly? Who knows? Big? Very
Some Evidence
Now, the importance of the non-existent abductor to the entire McCann and friends' story, or fairy story. How great is it? At the risk of boring the internet skimmer let's be serious for a moment and attempt to put it in measurable terms.
The 2007 BBC Panorama programme remains the most complete exposition of the McCann's version of events, with contributions from the parents and Jane Tanner among others. While the programme quoted some doubts about the pair, chiefly Portuguese, we know from the co-ordinating lawyer Smethurst's comments that it was made expressly to convince the public of the parents' innocence. As he said, that was why he and his clients co-operated with the BBC. Good old slutty Beeb again, always ready to lie on his/her back for a good butch guy with a tale to tell, but never mind.
The transcript of the programme runs to some 9 000 words. The events between 6.30 and 10 PM on May 3, described by the McCanns and Jane Tanner speaking directly, or having their versions expressed indirectly by narrator Bilton, take up just 1450 words, that is about 3/4 pages of a paperback book. The remainder of the programme concerns the investigation and other extraneous matters, not May 3 itself.
What is simply astonishing is that of these 1450 definitive words from the McCanns on what happened on the most crucial evening of their lives 1000 of them, almost three of the four pages, are not about the McCann's experiences at all but Jane Tanner's abductor! This imaginary figure, swollen now to a rampant giant, has completely taken over the disappearance. Without the Fairy-Tale Giant the story shrinks to virtual nothingness, about one padded-out paperback page. The whole McCann tale of May 3 is of a meal, an open window and some raised shutters – plus a Big Giant.
Kate McCann's "Madeleine" shows the same pattern, although four years later she is much more careful and this time she initially separates McCann experiences from the Tanner episode. Perhaps that is why her description of everything that happened to her and her husband between 8.30 and 10PM runs to only 750 words, two and a half pages or so out of a 360 page, 275 000 word book. And that is with a great deal of "colour" and padding. Why such a critical night in their lives should be padded out at all is an open question: without it, there is less than two thirds of a page of history, about as much as they devoted to a meal with Clement Freud.
But that, of course, is without the big, unfriendly Giant. In her over-heated description of the next few days Kate McCann makes up for his initial absence by carefully incorporating the Jane Tanner sighting in chunks, thus adding it back into the history of May 3 in the same way as Panorama did. It adds one and a half pages to the "narrative" – the Giant, the purely imaginary contribution is making up over half the entire story of 8.30 to 10PM on May 3!
So much for boring statistics. Anyone with a serious interest in the case can't ignore them but will they bore the casual reader? Terrify the Tweeter?
Who cares? They're ready for a judge. That's what matters.
Less than a week and all terribly changed! Scotland Yard’s new findings have altered the case for ever. Twitter subscribers please note, Mr Redwood has made the “no evidence of abduction” tweet obsolete.
His investigation means there is a new conclusion: There is evidence of abduction – all of it false.
Dr David Payne & his typed & submitted false evidence of the abductor
May 4 False evidence to police: That it seemed to him that the shutters of the bedroom window were open without knowing if the window was also open.
May 10 False evidence to police: Consequently, he is convinced that at the time of the second check the shutters were more open than on the first check.
April 2008 Retraction of false evidence to Leicester police: I definitely didn’t see the shutters up, the curtains were definitely not disturbed.
Mathew Oldfield and his false evidence of abductor intrusion
Clarence Mitchell with false evidence of abduction in left hand
Here’s the updated abduction evidence in full
Source
McCann family – forced apartment door. False, refuted by eyewitness and forensic evidence.
McCann family – damaged shutters. False, refuted by police forensics.
Kate McCann alone – open shutters. Uncorroborated by passers-by or forensics.
Kate McCann alone – open window. Uncorroborated by passers-by. No forensic corroboration.
Jane Tanner – abductor seen moving away from apartment. False/mistaken, sighting eliminated by UK police.
David Payne & others – further description of abductor, in writing. False, claimed abductor eliminated by UK police.
Mathew Oldfield – open shutters. False. Claim withdrawn under Leicester police questioning.
Clarence Mitchell – abductor sighting. “When Gerry had told Clarence about Jane Tanner’s sighting he was astounded that this still hadn’t been made public. We decided we would really push the PJ to release this critical piece of information in the hope of identifying this man and child.” False. Abductor never existed.
The Smith sighting, due to its distance from the apartment, could not be treated as direct abduction evidence in the same way as the Tanner phantom, who was only yards away from the apartment. Just what its status is we will no doubt find out from Scotland Yard.
Quite a list of lies, evasions, inventions and fantasy, isn't it?
The usual prizes for Twitter refutation of any of the above facts.
Well, Scotland Yard’s latest findings make the scenario rather different. Without Jane Tanner's "abductor" who the Yard have stated didn't exist, wouldn't the reporting have had to go something like this?
CHILD "MISSING" IN PORTUGAL
Sky news reports that a couple in the Algarve say their three year old daughter has "disappeared” from their holiday apartment. They say they were “not in their apartment” at the moment the child went missing.
Police are searching the area.
Madeleine Latest
A British couple have claimed their three year old child “vanished” from their holiday apartment in Praia da Luz, Portugal last Thursday. The mother has told the media how she returned alone from a restaurant to find an intruder had broken into the child’s bedroom and abducted her.
Police are refusing to comment on the claims.
Baffled
Yesterday her family gave further details of the break-in, adding that the door had been “jemmied open” and the metal shutters damaged by an intruder.
But experts are baffled. There have been no reports of suspicious activity at the time of the disappearance.
And the resort manager, Mr Hill, has called the McCann version into question by saying that there was no evidence of a break-in anywhere in the resort. Both door and shutters, he said, were completely undamaged. No finger prints apart from the mother’s were on the bedroom window.
Police are questioning the couple and their friends in Portimao.
MADDY – NEW EVIDENCE ABOUT TOT
The bar where the parents "drank and argued"
According to neighbours the child had been heard crying for a lengthy period one or two nights before the "break in" .
Others now say that the McCanns were "rowing” in a bar late on the night before the disappearance with Dr McCann suddenly leaving on his own. “Kate's eyes were those of a woman scorned”, said a waiter.
Another person in the bar, an attractive fitness instructor, denied that she had caused “family tension” between the couple.
On May 3 Kate McCann again returned home "without her husband".
Shock evidence in Portuguese disappearance
English holidaymakers have told police Madeleine’s father was seen “hanging around” by the back door of the apartment at about 9.15, just before the child disappeared.
Mr Jeremy Wilcox, an English tourist, saw Dr McCann walking away from the back door in the ill-lit street alongside the apartment block. The gate was hanging open. The pair had a brief conversation before Mr Wilkins, a world-famous documentary maker with a child of his own, left.
Further confusion has arisen from Dr McCann's claims that "he left the back door open" that evening, even though the children were alone while the parents ate at a nearby restaurant.
Madeleine McCann was not seen again after 9.15 on Thursday.
Conflict of Evidence in Child Disappearance
What Jane Tanner saw – artists' impression
M/S Jane Tanner, an English tourist, has now come forward to say that she too saw Dr Gerry McCann on the otherwise deserted street behind his holiday apartment.
She said, “I walked past him and Mr Wilkins as I was on my way to my own apartment to deal with my sick child.”
Asked if she’d seen the “jemmied open” shutters up as she passed the front of the apartment, M/S Tanner said, “No. Nobody did.”
Dr McCann is now refusing to comment but a family friend said, “If she was on that street Gerry would have seen her, like he saw Mr Wilcox. He didn’t. She wasn’t.”
The child’s mother is believed to be under sedation and unable to take part in the latest round of police questioning.
Mr Wilcocks has been eliminated from police inquiries.
Algarve mystery may soon be solved - police.
It is now understood that at the time Kate McCann claims she found their holiday apartment broken into a middle-aged man was seen carrying a child through ill-lit back streets towards the sea edge where a low but turbulent tide was running. Police divers have been operating off the beach for two days now.
Dr Gerry McCann, 40, is from Rothley in Leicestershire
Three witnesses have described the man seen with the child, who they described as “apparently unconscious”. One of them has claimed to recognise him.
A police source said “we expect to make arrests soon.” Asked about rumours that the man was identified as British doctor on holiday in the area, the police refused to comment.
The international media who flooded into Praia da Luz ten days ago have begun to leave, it was reported today.
One of the problems for critics of the T9 narrative is Jane Tanner. Why would someone who didn’t know the McCanns well and who, as she told Leicester police, found the mere idea of “swinging” with Garry McCann rather revolting, invent evidence to get a couple out of trouble?
An answer means leaving facts behind and loading presumption on presumption such as Tanner’s personal guilt in a group conspiracy until the small pile of known fact is buried under a dizzying heap of theory.
There have always been some critics, however, who thought that JT did see something.
It’s the something that's crucial; and here we have to go from the facts to a little bit of speculation ourselves. Judged on what we know she is in many ways an engaging and honest person but the general picture she presents, taking in statements, Leicester testimony and media comments, is of someone of a very nervous disposition with an intermittent distrust of her own perceptions – a human being, in other words, rather than the invented soap opera public characters of people like Gerry and Kate McCann.
Now, given the poor lighting at 9.13 or so and the extreme emotional roller-coaster that the T7 were to undergo isn’t the likelihood that she did see a figure, probably with a child? How accurately she remembered it is another matter.
Her report of the incident stressed that she didn’t think she’d seen anyone suspicious. She told nobody of it until after the alarm was raised because she’d merely noted someone with a child. Only when the uproar began did she mention its possible relevance and ask openly if she should tell the police about it.
How far she compromised herself over the weekend by allowing others to flesh out her sighting into something much more definite and substantial – and useful – than the original, how far she gave way to seeing things through others' eyes is as yet unknown but can be established by police inquiry.
Anyone who studies the Leicester interviews and, in particular, the surveillance van incident, sees what troubled perception she has: at times she seems to be arguing with herself over what she sees.
When she was asked to take part in the Portuguese van observation episode, again at spooky, ill-lit night time, she became so freaked-out that she thought she was going to be “disappeared" by strangers! I myself have accused her of being clever in the way she avoided giving a straight answer to LP about the van identification; another interpretation is that she does not always trust herself to know the truth.
The attempt to pin her as an active conspirator in creating group evidence, however, requires too much speculation, too many unknowns – what was her motive? When did she meet others to discuss false evidence that night? Would she have had the nerve? Why didn’t she add more “abductor-like” detail. Just where did the conspirators meet? How many of them?
But on the other reading, everything becomes immeasurably simpler, with suggestive documentary evidence sitting under our noses of how, when and where the false abduction evidence was evolved: we know of the sticker books, the named individuals writing on them (all male), the door fairy-tale, the Oldfield evasions and the work over the weekend which resulted in the final mendacious timeline printed out under the direction of David Payne. And now we have Mr Redwood’s statement to bring everything together: the fact that the abductor never existed.
That was my (minor) revelatory moment. When a case suddenly starts to look much simpler instead of more complicated, as it has done since Redwood made his statement, then a turning point has been reached. And there only remains one “possible abductor sighting with child” anywhere in the world unexplained.
We shall see.
Mr Blacksmith, while I accept your right to criticise I am very unhappy at your tone. The parents are suffering and you seem unable to react in a humane manner to the terrible blow they've had.
M/S Mythbreaker, Tunbridge Wells
Sorry, I never reply to people who write to me in green ink. I'll let the Bureau's social affairs spokesman answer instead:
Dr Heffer: Hello. According to Bureau statistics since May 2007, 36 000 children are known to have been eaten, had their limbs chopped off or burned alive, or killed in some other way across the globe. South Africa has untold thousands of HIV infected orphans limping along on an unviable long-term diet. They are largely ignored.
Many thousands of couples in Europe have watched their children die in hospital, in road accidents, of genetic problems and by criminal attack. They are largely forgotten. Partly because they haven't run screaming to the press. Tragedy and family loss are a normal part of the human condition and, in the end, strike everybody. Some social scientists suggest a connection between obesity in advanced western societies and emotional obesity leading to outbreaks of comfort mourning.
John, why are the media still telling lies? When will the dam break?
Hoper, Kingston upon Thames.
First of all, can I ask you a question? Would you rather the McCanns gained another £500 000 with a libel win to spend on grand hotels, crooked associates like Halligen and the pursuit of an ex-public servant?
There is no direct evidence that the parents did anything to their child. So the media have no truth defence if they claim they did.
The dam may never break. If it does and the McCanns are pursued by the media for some criminal act the sight will be at least as revolting as media behaviour over the last six years.
Why does the media fawn over the couple?
Anita O' Day, "Turn Me On", Sacramento, California.
Why not? It's safe, raises the emotional temperature nicely and sells papers. No risk, little cost: a no brainer really. And most of the public love it.
Sorry mate but you are just a wind-up hater. Don't get cancer will you mate? Now I'm off with the other lads for a game of football on Hackney Marshes and a few jars afterwards and a look at a dirty DVD. Get a life mate.
Judy Drooly. Sent in error.
Dear John. Is there any hope for Clarence Mitchell?
Separated, Mrs X, Railway cuttings, Hendon Central.
In the long run, no.
What power do you think lies behind the couple? Surely it is not possible that they are indeed unsupported?
WG Sebald, Dresden, Germany.
The power of soap opera and our difficulties in confronting real life directly. I include myself.
Mr "blacksmith" as you call yourself one day you will have to accept the social matrix as determined by the Frankfurt school and its analysis of power, instead of indulging. Cameron is the public face of the forces that you don't understand.
Miguel Sousa Tavares, Santa Maria Álvares Pereira Street, Ramsbotttom, Lancashire, UK
I'm sure you're right.
Esta é a mensagem que eu quero traduzido google: Suas palavras não são minhas, Blacksmith seu porco. Todos Lisboa, ambos os lados do rio Ebro, concorda com me.Try um novo navegador com tradução automática.
Pedro Silva [for it is he]
I'm sure you're right.
Are the press telling the truth yet?
M/S Paula Rego, "Welcome", Sussex.
The press never tell the truth. The mistake we made in 2007 was to think the all-cost defenders in the press believed what they were being paid to write. And drove ourselves nuts wondering what they could see that we couldn't. We shouldn't do that again.
JB – I used to like what you wrote but now you sit on the fence. Join us.
TB Ward-Nurse, Address withheld.
No. I go by the Archiving Summary into the interrupted investigation. Every word of it.
What is the best guide for someone new to the MM affair? I have a lot of time to read for the next seven years.
Julian Assange, Knightsbridge, London.
With apologies I recommend my own work, rather like a London Guardian contributor. The Cracked Mirror //http://madeleinemccannaffair.blogspot.co.uk/ won't win any prizes but it's the only thing I've written on the case that I don't and won't delete.
Can Goncalo Amaral sue in the English courts for libel?
A. Abulafia, Gerona, Spain.
In the UK he must sue within twelve months of the first appearance of the libel.
What did I do wrong at the tribunal?
Brian L, Liverpool, England
Even judges can't free themselves completely from the hold of soap opera. You abased yourself. That is why you have been passed over for LCJ. The curse of the McCanns on everyone who gets too close.
Soon the streets of Norbury will be filled with cheers and tears as Maddie is brought home. I had an idea, John, and wrote to the council suggesting a little road next to our estate be re-named Madeleine's Close! Do you see the double meaning? In these unhappy times sometimes it is best to laugh. Well we all do what we can, don't we? But the council (lib-dem of course) said no. And then I found out it is a dead end filled with overflowing and smelly wheelie bins, so perhaps they were Right. Keep up your work to get her home Mr Blacksmith.
Justice for Maddie (from Norbury)
No carnation for you! Karl Krause long ago exposed the way the British Empire uses "plants" like you to hide its real action, like the way it steals Goa, the most beautiful part of the world and give it away to the turbans. You will be exposed one day.
J. Piri-Piri, address withheld.
Since going through some traumatic episodes I have become a Quaker, learned Humility and moved closer to God. Madeleine is close to my heart. Now will you shut the fuck up?
Rebekah B. Rollright Stones Bail Centre, Oxon.
Hello Jon. You have to mask your knowledge of what really happened to little Madeleine for the lawyers by being very careful how you say things. You know that and I know that right? What about writing to me with your real feelings about how those filthy murderers of very sweet little girls actually did it? You know, no holds bard. Please enclose diagrams, pics etc. and sign it by Hand so I'll know its from you.
Michael Write, "Agent Provocateur" Lingerie Shop, Skipton.
You blacksmith stink. Like Amaral's fat arse. I read this in Lisbon paper from my homeland today and translate it for haters like you. "The hiatus of Maddie United think only them from Atlantic know truth when overhead valve engine sings. No! they not do! Port you Geese not fuels be leave in lovely sweet little Maddie. Haiti's will never whinny. "
See? My countrymen have those like you well worked out. You blacksmith are small fart of Amaral big behind.
Pedro Silva [for it is he] Tagus Cottage, Tayside, Scotland (on holiday here).
I was just talking to hubby in the green room before putting down your latest hate-filled anti-Maddy missive. Had to douse myself in a flagon of Chanel to get rid of its odorous malice, spilling it all over my devilishly sheer tights. Oh well, 14 guests and a few bottles of Dong Perignon on the terrace will take away the nasty taste you have left. Then into the firm arms of my man. Repent.
Judie Drooly, chatelaine, Leytonstone.
Go on, tell us what really happened! All the filth and blood! Plain SAE enclosed. Be sure to sign it.
Michaela Wrong, "Rosebud", Skipton, Yorks.
One more joke about my piles from you Bullshit and I give you fair warning that armed members of the disability commission will be knocking on your door. Put your spliff down and smell the coffee. Thirteen rear-end operations have hardened me.
Mary. Floor 28, Blasted Heath Estate, Glamis, Scotland.
BB gun. Your arse is mine.
Pedro Silva [for it is he] C/o Portuguese Cultural Centre, Glasgow.
From Tony Parsons, the Mirror:(—) Nope, fuck off Parsons.
Editor.
The search for Madeleine, funded by the public, achieves its results quietly and away from the public gaze. That is why people like Goncalo Amaral must not be allowed to wreck it. While investigators have come and gone two people, Kate & Gerry McCann, have carried the search burden at incredible emotional cost and exertion.
But their long Calvary may at last be heading for an end: statistical analysis by scientists and criminologists at our sister publication The Bureau has revealed a definite pattern of probable localities where the child Madeleine is very likely to be found. In good time we will be passing the results to Scotland Yard. Here is a brief summary of the research.
Funding
The searchers are funded out of public donations to a private company "the fund". Although the company has a number of activities, such as assisting house purchases in deprived areas like Rothley, Leics. and supporting needy professionals, such as lawyers fallen on hard times, plus consciousness-raising among the public by paid PR specialists – who do an excellent job! – and lobbying the government for support action, its main aim is the search.
Research
Details will be found elsewhere. Briefly "Hotspots" of Madeleine's possible presence are identified by search patterns. We do not know why some areas show almost no search activity while others glow like gold and hum with activity. To give an example Madeleine comes from Liverpool, yet our research shows that there has never been any significant searching there. The reasons are a complete mystery at present.
Not Here Mate
Not a single Hotspot trace here in Liverpool
Essex: no search activity here
Areas like this in the USA are zero probability say search intensity results
Does climate affect hide-out & search possibilities?
The Hotspots
Prime Hotspot with high McCann search activity
Top Hotspot - the relatively unexplored site above indicates heavy abductor presence and searching. It is described as:
"Centrally located, this deluxe hotel offers elegant guest rooms and a full range of spa facilities. Dom Pedro Palace is 750 metres from the nearest Metro station and 15-minutes' drive from the Lisbon Airport.
The Dom Pedro Spa is open daily and offers an indoor swimming pool, hot tub, steam bath, sauna and cardio-fitness room. There are also 5 treatment rooms where guests can enjoy a range of massages and therapies."
Could she still be in Portugal?
Hotel Belavista da Luz
This dirty little abductor shelter may hold the key. According to Rough Guide to Cheap Guest Houses which the fund is believed to use, it is:
"Overlooking the bay of Praia da Luz with its sandy beach only 800 metres away.Guests at Belavista Da Luz can enjoy the on-site tennis court and gym, while children entertain themselves in the playground. [Is that why the parents investigated this place so thoroughly?] It is also possible to relax in the heated pool or to book a massage."
Kate McCann forced herself to battle these conditions and search thoroughly in 2007. It was the beginning of a long, arduous and emotionally draining experience. At least the fund was there to help them.
Tivoli Hotel, Lagos
The sacrifice continues. The McCanns made themselves stay here and confront the possibility that a sports pervert paedophile may have brought Madeleine here by car. No results yet in this barren and inhospitable wasteland in Portugal. The value for money Rough Guide again:
"Two outdoor swimming-pools for adults and children and one indoor swimming-pool with Jacuzzi. Health club (sauna, Turkish bath, massage parlour and keep fit gymnasium). There are 8 golf courses in a radius of 20 Km from Lagos... water sports & tennis at the Duna Beach Club. Tivoli Lagos is a 4-star resort featuring spa facilities and a courtyard with swimming pool. It offers a free shuttle service to its private beach on Meia Praia.
All of the air-conditioned rooms at the Tivoli have a balcony and offer satellite TV and a minibar. The Duna beach club, set on 4 miles of beach, has a large swimming pool with sunbathing area and a cocktail bar. It also offers a variety of water sports, including kite surfing and water skiing."
Lake Shore Drive, Chicago
America's leading lady helped them investigate the impoverished and crime ridden city of Chicago. Unsubstantiated rumours have claimed that the child may be staying with a Mr Jimmy Hoffa. In her tortured record of the experience poor Kate wrote :
"A choice of clothes and shoes had been brought to our hotel for me. Later that morning we were taken over to the Harpo Studios and introduced to Oprah’s team. I had my make-up and hair done by two lovely ladies (if only I could look like that every day!)."
The Dutch connection?
Miserable little Amsterdam
Another Hotspot. The water-threatened and possibly mosquito ridden city of Amsterdam. The pain of searching here was now beginning to crush poor Kate. As she wrote:
"On our descent into Schipol airport, the sensations that were now becoming familiar returned: the tight throat, the stinging, wet eyes, the heavy, dragging feeling in my chest. Oh God, how could this be? Amsterdam held so many happy memories of the year we’d lived there with Madeleine. How could we be coming back without her? I’m so sorry, Madeleine. I’m so, so sorry."
Stricken Kate & Gerry in Amsterdam
Oh sad, benighted Dutch city, haunted by the spirit of Ann Frank. Will Madeleine ever be free? Or will my tears trickle forever into those canals! (Local graffito).
Rome – possible ritual abuse hiding place
Kate hated this incessant searching but duty is duty. As she confided to the privacy of her book:
"Sir Philip Green kindly offered us the use of his private jet. But what would people say? That we were hobnobbing with celebrities and swanning around in the lap of luxury while our daughter was suffering? …In the end we accepted Sir Philip’s offer for logistical and emotional reasons. The key factor was that it would dramatically reduce the period of time we’d need to spend away from Amelie and Sean."
"We were informed that we would need to wear ‘dark suits’ to meet the Pope. Clothes again! On the Tuesday morning Gerry and I went to a big shopping centre to buy something appropriate. As a woman who could not yet enjoy a snack in a café without feeling guilty, I could not get my head round this. My daughter was missing and here we were shopping!"
Madrid. Had Metodo pointed Kate & Gerry there? Or something else?
Not just the fund but other well-wishers lightened the load. Their stay in this gloomy and poverty-stricken city was helped by good, decent people. Kate wrote:
"We were met at Madrid airport by several British Embassy staff, a liaison officer and two press officers, as well as a crowd of journalists and photographers, and taken to the hotel where we were to spend the night."
Austerity Berlin
This grim ruin almost broke Kate's spirit but a search is a search. Kate wrote:
"For this three-legged trip we’d been offered the use of a plane by one of the directors of Netjets, a company that sells fractional jet ownership (a bit like a holiday-home timeshare, only with planes), which we accepted gratefully for the same reasons as we’d decided to accept Sir Philip Green’s help to get us to Rome. Again, a small press contingent travelled with us."
Conclusion
Their endless odyssey continues. But we believe that Madeleine will be found. The Hotspot evidence shows that Kate & Gerry have almost destroyed themselves by venturing into these paedophile and hunchback infested badlands. The money that has enabled them to walk this Sacred Road of Suffering has been well spent. Let Clarence "Freak" Mitchell, another tireless beneficiary of our money, have the last word.Asked about the fund expenditure on the latest search of the network of hidden passages and vaults in the Dom Pedro Palace he said, on the record:
"This type of travel obviously fits into the search for Madeleine which is the Fund's purpose. That was what it was created for and Madeleine's parents will never use it for anything else apart from that".
"We have 800 thousand pounds, which is 880.170,36 euros. We don't have money problems. People continue to help us".
The leader of the latest McCann search party is greeted by a guide
Our Social Affairs Editor Antonella datzaLeper says:
What's wrong with people? 200 to 250 euros, the cost of a single room in the paedophile-infested Dom Pedro flophouse is money well spent and Madeleine may well be found wedged into the wine racks in its famous cellars.
For comparison 250 euros would only fund an outing for 15 Mexican gang-victim orphans, or medicine for an African HIV infected orphan for 32 days. Yes, 880 000 euros would feed an entire Liberian province for three months, but let's be realistic, shall we? Where do you want Kate and Gerry to stay when they're searching, a bloody Premier Inn without even a beauty salon? Or a caravan? Get real, haters.
All invented
The Inner Circle
We now know that the “abductor” seen near apartment 5A around 9.15PM never existed. We know that the McCanns provided evidence of the abductor’s activities within the apartment. It was invented: there never was any intruder at that time – official.
False evidence.
Over the weekend of May 5/6 members of the group wrote it down as fact and added much more untruthful information. They signed it, printed it off in multiple copies and gave it to the British ambassador and the Portuguese police as the truth.
And we also know that the “family shills” simultaneously gave equally false information to the media about how that non-existent abductor forced his way into the apartment, leaving more "physical evidence".
False evidence.
We know the broad outlines of how and when this “ fairy story” was developed into the detailed printed version by this inner circle of helpers. Of course the subsequent police statements by the group did not contain these details. Why? Because the truth comes naturally but lies have to be remembered: when the police wouldn’t let them take their copy of the lies into the interviews with them – a bit like Michael Wright in the Lisbon libel trial the other day – they were lost.
False evidence.
The Middle Circle
Over the years, though, the lie about the abductor has been elaborated away from the police interview rooms, chiefly by friendly journalists abusing their positions and by “spokesman” Clarence Mitchell at his increasingly bizarre press conferences where he “filled in the details” – of someone who’d never existed!
That, of course, was false evidence too.
What we don’t know is why the parents initiated it all. I, personally, have never gone down that road. It’s a matter for the police.
The Outer Circle – Us
The false evidence, on the other hand, is not a matter for the police alone. It concerns us all because, in a widening circle of pure deceit, the parents first provided members of their family with the lies, then members of the Tapas group, then the Foreign Office via the embassy and then members of the UK media en masse in Praia da Luz – who then sold it on to us, the end-users.
We were the most powerful enlisted accessories, much more important than the media itself, or the failures like forgotten Gordon Brown. Unlike them we, rich and poor, had the power to shower the pair with money, real money, buying them the freedom to force people into silence. The freedom to fly to 5 star hotels by private jet building up their image. And the freedom to hire the most expensive lawyers in the world. It was us, the public who believed them, who had the power to prevent extradition by the force of our opinion.
Until recently, as the story began to crumble and the public started to ask the right questions, even though they dread the answers. That’s why the prime database for the case, the McCann Files, is now getting over 100, 000, yes, 100,000, official hits per day.
Wait for the police?
That’s why it would have been wrong for us to “wait for the police” to unravel the mystery. We waited and they didn’t do it! Neither in Portugal nor in the UK. There never was a “search” after July 2008. There never were any “private investigators” investigating anything. On the contrary the crooks and has-beens whom the McCanns recruited did just what they were paid to do for the £400 000 of our money they received.
We had to find out for ourselves how we were conned, helped only by a single ex-policeman with a sense of honour, who for his efforts on behalf of their missing child, the parents tried to destroy. And on whom the UK media, and a small group of internet fanatics – "useful idiots" used by the parents – poured insult after scarcely believable insult for six years.
The public, both on juries and off, just might have a few accounts to settle with that media, a large number of whom will be traipsing into the dock during the coming year. There’s a lot to come out, isn’t there Keir?
One of these is doomed. Which one?
Of course most of the MSM journalists – those who don’t go to prison – will cover their tracks. Some of them, believe it or not, will try and write books about the affair. But not the worst, most cynical, liar of them all, the one who sold his soul, and sold out a child, for his own fame. The one who, unlike the Tapas 9, didn’t even have the defence of necessity and self-preservation.
Your political career is dead before it starts, chum.
Correction
No, nobody's been on the phone.
I'll reserve judgement on officer Redwood until we discover how many of his public pronouncements are true, rather than useful.
One thing I seem to have been wrong about, as a number or people have pointed out, is the connection of Redwood to the Barry George squad. Checking Mr Redwood's surprisingly sparse and uninformative Scotland Yard CV I can't find any evidence of this. So I was careless as well as wrong. Apologies.
Let’s try and make it clear why the dominoes must fall. For those who are not familiar with the case let’s stick to the fatal bedroom door.
We described in the previous article how the group "evolved" their evidence, so that by May 6 it rested solidly on one foundation: the abductor and intruder seen by Jane Tanner.
The dominoes must fall
The problem for all the dominoes is this: if the foundation that they built on is suddenly removed then their evidence no longer makes any sense. It cannot be true. And once domino Mathew Oldfield decided to back their story, and once domino David Payne organized nearly all the group to collude in writing a document containing a hugely elaborated version of these lies and presenting it to the British ambassador and the Portuguese police, the story was set in stone and set in time.
But the abductor, ultimately, was not sustainable and is now gone; the situation is now not “no evidence of abduction” but self-evident and unarguable “false evidence of abduction”, not, funnily enough, by Jane Tanner but by most of the others in the group.
With the “timeline” printed and fixed there was no going back. According to that fairy tale the bedroom door was left partially open when the pair went to the restaurant that night, disturbed between 8.30 and 9.05, returned to its original position by Gerry McCann at 9.10 and found disturbed again by Oldfield at 9.30.
They’d lied too much – instead of the intrusion evidence they invented to fit in with a shadowy figure on the street who’d never be found they’d created two intrusions! Someone must have moved the door between 8.30 and 9.05, without disturbing the shutters, which Oldfield and McCann confirmed were down. After McCann left at 9.10 another intrusion must have occurred, this time, as Oldfield confirmed, involving the shutters as well as the door being open.
The hopeless squirming
Since May 10 the McCanns have attempted, with and without lawyers, to talk themselves out of this self-created trap. They were, naturally, driven to claim that an intruder might have been hiding in the apartment to bring the two intrusions back to a single one, even though the children remained undisturbed and the PJ said there was nowhere in the small apartment for anyone to hide.
To cope with the shutters being closed when the first abductor was in the apartment but open when Oldfield was there they then had to invent a reason why the shutters would be opened from within. Which led to the next lie: it must have been to pass the child out.
To whom? Why there must have been another abductor outside!
The attempts can be followed on Panorama, the Oprah Winfrey show and elsewhere, including the enthusiastic words of that conservative party candidate Clarence "Freak" Mitchell. On Panorama they actually made it worse, despite the careful “expunge it!” script, with Gerry McCann forgetting his lines and saying he’d “closed” the door, instead of “leaving it ajar”. Whoops!
It's over
Oldfield, for his part, had to face some proper questioning instead of the celebrity loving BBC and its presenters. His limp attempts to talk himself out of trouble by directly contradicting his PJ evidence to Leicester police in 2008 are also a matter of record.
With the acceptance that an “abductor” never existed at this time and that the bedroom door, therefore, had never been moved the McCanns and their helpers are left nakedly exposed. Let the ever-helpful journalist David James Smith elaborate in one of his 2007 articles:
“It perhaps needs to be stated openly that all these timings and details, the way in which they weave and dovetail together, are based on witness accounts – corroborated not just by the McCann group but by others, such as Jes Wilkins – and that, despite suggestions to the contrary, there are no obvious contradictions or differences between them.”
We’ll forget that last bit, shall we? Stick to the beginning: ever tried unweaving a garment and putting it back together in a different shape? Ever tried undoing dovetail joints and making them lock together a different way round? It can’t be done.
Kate McCann conjuring the Algarve wind
In her last words about the bedroom door Kate McCann has given up on the task of locating its position on her 10PM apartment entry. Too dangerous. Instead, and quite in keeping with the whole “fairy story”, she has conjured up a squall like some crazed female Prospero, leaving the door to swing wildly in the wind, forever undecided.
Alas Poor Jane – or lucky JT?
Finally, Jane Tanner.
If Jane Tanner was sure of what she’d seen then the Yard’s claim that the original of the abductor has been located would be irrelevant and the threadbare remains of the group lie still in place: all she has to do is stand by her story, tell them they’ve found yet another walker and child and suggest the Yard get back to work.
But whoever she’s been talking to she clearly hasn’t said that, has she? And, as I said, she's the only one in the group not involved in David Payne's story creation. So what do you think she has been saying? And to whom? Something else for the group to fret about as the dominoes start to fall.
The truth decides the face, not the make-up
Anyone who thinks that the excision of Jane Tanner’s sighting – the most significant development in the case since 2007 – leaves the rest of the group unscathed is living in dreamland.
The evidence demonstrates a collective effort to build a narrative of events based on an innocent passer-by being an “abductor” on May 3 – 10, by omission, invention and distortion. It isn't a bolt-on that can be safely removed from the group’s evidence: without it the whole rotten structure starts to crumble.
Too soon
The failed narrative can be seen to start with Madeleine McCann's pathetic but dangerous legacy - the sticker books.
In neither book, written as the police were approaching, is there any mention of Gerry McCann seeing his children on the “9.04” visit. In sticker book one Oldfield’s visit is described as having “seen twins” at 9.30ish. In the second his entire visit to the apartment is deleted. Not because a version of it didn't happen but presumably because they can't yet find a place to put it. Only the JT vision and, significantly, the “10PM alarm” are constants. The juggling with the truth to make it fit neatly around an abductor who would never be found is transparent.
Then the collusion among the critical members of the group goes on hold for troubled sleep and afterwards for their appointments at Portimao police HQ.
Too little
The police reports of May 4 are laughably devoid of most of the information that was afterwards fleshed out around the sighting. GM states that he checked and found the kids OK but thought the bedroom door was not in quite the same position it had been left in. Tanner’s sighting is there in only skeletal form but everyone points the police at it.
Over the weekend the timeline is written and printed and accounts hugely expanded to welcome and accommodate the stranger. GM now remembers significant details about his first visit, tying it in with what Oldfield saw, all leading to the conclusion that the abduction took place between 9.15 and 9.30. The description of the sighting is filled out in absurd and fictional detail. Mathew Oldfield, the most malleable of the group (“get down to reception and see what’s happening with the police!”) and Jane Tanner, the most vulnerable, become the foundations of the fairy story. As always Kate & Gerry McCann work from behind the scenes.
Oldfield’s embroidered version is given to the police on May 10; Gerry McCann adds more colour to his own visit. Most of the others are " unable to help" with critical details. The police treat it all with the derision it deserves.
Too late
A year later at the Leicester interviews the compromised ones try to extricate themselves from the lifetime danger of their position. They can’t. Their stories, from the open door to the ambiguous shutters, cannot accommodate a disappearance after 9.30. Payne, more helpful than he realises, says:
"…but you know and then you’re looking for information to, to try and fit in with what you thinks happened and then you know when, when we knew that we just thought, you know, that is it, that is who’s taken her.”
O’ Brien, sensing danger if the brittle Tanner’s vision is ever discredited, tries to rewrite his statement to make the Oldfield visit less critical, less dependent on his partner’s veracity.
“So you would like to remove this then?”
“Well I don’t…”
“If we remove”.
“Yeah, from”.
“’This is the final check before Madeleine was noticed missing’ if we remove that?”
“Yeah, yeah, actually, yeah, it’s mainly me just commenting on what Matt said”.
Oldfield himself now tries to back off, aware of the horribly risky position he’s in. In place of the original story – GM left the bedroom “very dark” at 9,05, Oldfield found it backlit somehow from the window – he now thinks it might have been moonlight through the patio doors that was brightening the room!
All futile, all too late. The door which opens and closes in Madeleine McCanns' bedroom is like a mocking symbol of the lethality of their collective position.Gerry McCann digs himself deeper and deeper into the mire every time he opens his mouth about that door: its final position now condemns the couple to an abductor before 9.30. He can never close it.
And what of that ghostly presence lurking in the room while Gerry McCann was there at 9.05, the one that comes and goes according to mood or need, so beautifully described by Dr McCann and so helpfully enlarged upon by that freak Mitchell. It won't come and go anymore: you can't pick the hunchbacked paedophile monster out of the garbage bucket where he was hiding and say, come on chum, we've got to move you to 9.55.
The whole black comedy nightmare process can be seen in the files. It is impossible for them to rewrite their parts. Gerry and Kate McCann, known and notorious liars, now don’t even have the fig-leaf of the Tanner story to give them at least the possibility of veracity and are left horribly exposed, as their faces demonstrate. Payne will find a way to save himself: people like Payne always will. The most vulnerable domino of the 7 is now out of the game, exactly how we don't know. Will the other "useful idiot", the most malleable one, be the next to fall?
So the fiction they created, which combined self-protection with the hallmark McCann soap-opera material so easily accepted by the credulous, (because it’s fiction! silly) – a swarthy villain heading for escape but a possible happy ending for the child somewhere, somehow, Send for the helicopters! Close the borders! One day she’ll be released from her Algarve log cabin if we hope and pray! – gives way to another, rather more real narrative, the only one around and one that they are all powerless to counter: that of a sinister figure carrying an inert child through the darkness down towards the deep sea, from which there is no return.
The Blacksmith Bureau had a single, polemical, purpose – to help Goncalo Amaral in every honest way it could against the activities of two ruthless con-artists too deep into their scam ever to get out: using the funds they'd conned from the public with their false claims they ambushed and tried to destroy him because they knew silence was tantamount to accepting the truth of what he wrote.
Now it’s different. The Interrupted Investigation is about faith, not certainty, that if the truth is laid out for anyone to read it can help the cause of justice.
There are no conspiracy theories here, no belief in political interference, no assertions, no claims of inside knowledge. When I make interpretations they are solidly grounded on those facts. Since 2010 neither supporters of the McCanns nor Kate McCann herself (“it’s just a rumour”) have been able to rebut, let alone refute, any of the examples I give of the McCanns’ constant lying and plotting in their own, very mysterious, interests.
They all avoid the actual accusations I make, from the fact that the co-author of the Archiving Summary swore on oath that they had lied about events on May 3 2007, to the fact that Kate McCann did not turn down her lawyer’s suggestion of a possible plea bargain with the police in September 2007 (read Madeleine, page 243, paragraph 2 very carefully); that, for exactly the same reason (neutral witnesses present to correct the record on oath if necessary) Jane Tanner neither confirmed nor denied identifying Robert Murat as the abductor to Leicester police, through to the fact that they are lying now, after Kate McCann attempted too late to save herself by settling with Amaral before he could set in train the mechanisms that may expose her. Soon, God willing, one at least of them will have to answer for some of those lies in the witness box in Lisbon.
I’ve made it clear that any time one of the Team McCann or the Tapas 7 members, or lawyers acting on their behalf, point out, with evidence, errors in my claims I will immediately withdraw them. They never ring.
So one goes on laying out the facts in the possibly vain hope that not just critics or enemies of the couple but ordinary people, including journalists who were conned, will do what the supporters and shills can’t bring themselves to do: accept the truth.
The pair being questioned on oath about the London Bridge sale
The attempt to deceive the UK public, the original con that they hoped would save them, continued even though that public was beginning to find out, unofficially, what was going on. It was therefore vital that the information remained "only rumour", to use a favourite phrase of Kate McCann.
So they denied everything as long as they possibly could and made sure they never gave any hint of confirmation themselves that the police were hot on their trail, however bizarre their attempts became in the light of reality. With nothing officially confirmed they still had prospects for the future – once they'd got out of Portugal.
I'll leave aside completely the simultaneous work the pair were doing with their spin machine and lying to journalists using their various agents and shills – a huge subject in itself. No, this is just their spare time stuff.
Below is a well-known selection of events in August 2007. Each event is followed by extracts from Gerry McCann's blog entries to demonstrate how accurately he conveys the truth for the UK public.
August 2 2007 Gerry & Kate McCann had their place turned over by the police and were left with only the clothes they were wearing. The game was up.
August 2 Gerry McCann’s blog Today was a bit of a write off for me as I was laid low with a probable viral illness which meant I could not stray too far from the house! I did manage to get through some e-mails, telephone calls and some paperwork. Feeling a bit better tonight so hopefully be back to normal tomorrow.
August 3 It is exactly 3 months since Madeleine was abducted. Kate and I had an early start as we drove to Huelva, 50Km over the border from Portugal in Southern Spain. We were meant to go yesterday but had to cancel because I was ill.
August 6 Police asked Gerry McCann to meet them and then seized his car and took it for forensic testing.
August 6 Today was again very busy. Lots of e-mails and telephone calls to family and friends who have been involved in the campaign to find Madeleine.
August 7 Of course all possibilities are being considered and the police have to be certain before eliminating any of the scenarios. It is absolutely right that we are subject to the same high standards of investigation as anyone else. Kate and I have, and will continue to assist the police in every possible way.
August 8 Kate & Gerry McCann interrogated, accused by police of lying and covering up their actions with regard to the child. Suggestions they could face a murder charge. Both of them in hysterics.
August 8 Kate’s parents left early this morning…At our meeting with the Portuguese police today we reaffirmed that we have to believe Madeleine is alive until there is concrete evidence to the contrary. It is this belief that has driven everything we have done in relation to publicising Madeleine's disappearance over the last 3 months.
August 11 PJ officer arrives to tell them that dog searches suggest death in apartment 5A. Tears, breakdown, hysterics.
August 11 Just another day but a significant milestone that we prayed we would never have to face without Madeleine…In the afternoon we went to a local swimming pool and play area with the kids and their cousins. They had a great time swimming, playing with tennis balls and generally messing around…There was a statement from the Portuguese police today regarding the recent activity in the investigation and media speculation. They confirmed that there are new leads and that we are not suspects in Madeleine's disappearance.
August 20 The McCanns go and see criminal lawyers to defend themselves against the charges which are obviously coming,
August 20 I had a predominately quiet but productive day. I spent most of it at the computer or on the phone. We keep in regular touch with both the Portuguese and British police but there has been no major news in the last couple of days.
September 2 The police tell them they will be formally interrogated in the coming days and to bring a lawyer. Shouts, tears, hysterics.
September 2 Another relatively quiet family day.My mum and sister arrived this morning after we had been to church. This afternoon we took the kids to a friend’s house with a pool. Kate and I went for a short run and then we all had a swim and a couple of treats brought all the way from Glasgow!
September 5 We were surprised to find increased media presence in Praia da Luz again today. We were followed down to church, then to the shops and back to our accommodation which is very unusual, apart from the build up to the 100 days. All the excitement seems to be over the results of the recent forensic tests that again have created a huge amount of speculation.
The rest of the story is all too well known. I will leave readers with just one more paired entry.
September 7 Unable to face the prospects of jail Kate & Gerry McCann discussed fleeing across the border but decided against.
September 10 On Saturday we asked the Portuguese police if they had any objection to us coming back to the UK. We had assured them that we will continue to cooperate fully with the investigation and of course will return as requested and for our own emotional reasons.
An entry that provides a satisfactory conclusion to a remarkable performance that continues – just – to this day.
